Tesla's Upcoming Model Y, Project Juniper, Spotted with Front Bumper Camera; Coming in 2025 (2024)

While Elon Musk has previously mentioned that a refreshed Model Y, codenamed “Juniper”, would not be arriving in 2024, JacklJack on Reddit snapped a picture of a Model Y, which was covered up.

When Will It Be Released

The refresh, or Highland Model 3 began with engineering test vehicles being spotted near Giga Texas and the Fremont factory in California. Similarly, this covered-up Model Y was spotted near Pasadena, California.

Given the timelines we saw for the new Model 3, this prototype for the Model Y appears to be following a trajectory for an early to mid-2025 launch. Engineering test vehicles for the new Model 3 were first spotted in North America about 6-8 months prior to its introduction to China. After its initial release in Chinese, the vehicle was later released in North America just a few months later.

If timelines for Project Juniper are similar to what we saw for the Model 3, we should expect to see more engineering test vehicles on the road in North America soon.

The vehicle is expected to be released in China first, with a North American and European arrival following sometime after. While the Performance variant of the new Model 3 didn’t launch until April of 2024, several months after the Long Range version was available in North America, it’s not clear whether Tesla will follow a similar strategy and launch the Long Range version of the new Model Y before the Performance model.

Front Bumper Camera

There was a lot of speculation about the refreshed Model 3 coming with a front bumper camera, but so far the Cybertruck is the only Tesla vehicle that includes a bumper camera and a camera washer (video). While updated versions of the Model S and Model X are also expected to add the lower-bumper camera, so also have yet to go on sale as well.

It’s not clear why Tesla didn’t launch the new camera with the new Model 3 since the bumper was already being redesigned and the factories were being retooled. However, according to the spy shot of the updated Model Y, it looks like it could be Tesla’s second vehicle to include the bumper camera. TeslaNewswire shared a photo of the Model Y with the brightness increased which appears to reveal the new front bumper camera. The location is exactly where you’d expect, very similar to the Cybertruck and similar to early shots of the prototype Model 3 that also contained the bumper camera.

It’s not clear whether this additional camera will make it into the production version, but it’s at least a sign that Tesla is considering adding this camera to another model.

Musk Asks People to Stop

Elon Musk replied to Sawyer Merritt on X (Twitter), not only reiterating that the refreshed Model Y will not be released this year. He also asked people to stop hinting that it will be since it damages Tesla’s sales of the current vehicle.

Potential Upgrades

While the release of the new Model Y may be about a year out in North America – there is a chance that the updated Model Y Juniper could show up with Hardware 5 sensors and computers. Elon Musk estimated that HW5, now dubbed AI5 was about 12-18 months away from production. The new Model Y could be the vehicle that debuts the new FSD package.

Of course, all of the rest of the upgrades that came with the updated Model 3 will all likely come to the Model Y – a new front and rear fascia, new adaptive headlights, increased range, ambient lighting, new colors, new speakers, and better dynamics in general. Package all of that up with what was already the best-selling car in 2023, and we’ve got a hit on our hands.

Shortly after the announcement of Rivian and Volkswagen’s joint venture, Rivian hosted a short, impromptu investor call to discuss a few key items. If you want to listen to the call yourself, you’ll need to provide a few short pieces of information at this link. The day after, on the 27th of June, Rivian held its Investor Day.

Let’s dive into all the awesome stuff that was unveiled by Rivian during the call and during Investor Day itself.

Volkswagen Investment

The first item on the list was of course the announcement of the joint venture with Volkswagen. The call confirmed that VW will be providing that $1B initial investment, alongside the $4B planned for 2025 and onwards.

Rivian has said that it intends to use this investment to focus on the Rivian R2 ramp at its Normal, Illinois factory, as well as develop its upcoming facility in Georgia. They also confirmed that they will be providing software and ECU (electronic control units) hardware for Volkswagen EVs going forward, which will be based on the R2 or R3 platforms.

The companies will be sharing the responsibility of the joint venture corporation, and Rivian and Volkswagen will each appoint one co-CEO. If you’re interested in the details of how the Joint Venture and the investment work, we highly recommend you listen to the call.

New Vehicles, New Platforms

Rivian also showed off a slide quite similar to Tesla’s slide at its Shareholder Meeting – with 5 vehicles under the wraps. Of note is the updated R1 Gen 2 platform has a new vehicle, which looks similar to the R1S Suburban Edition that has been previously teased. The R2/R3 platform also has a smaller vehicle in its lineup, which looks similar to a wagon or hot hatch. Finally, the “Affordable Mass Market” platform has a full-size SUV, as well as a smaller SUV and what could be a sedan.

All in all, Rivian has some exciting news to look forward to, with the Joint Venture serving as both a lifeline and an opportunity for Rivian to push towards more affordable mass-market vehicles, which will help cement them as an affordable EV brand.

New Battery Pack and Bi-Directional Charging

Another major update for Rivian’s platforms – including the Gen 2 R1 series and R2/R3 platform, is an updated battery pack. This updated pack is structural – and has greatly reduced the cost of the structural components by approximately 50%, which is a massive improvement. Rivian will be using 4695 cells in their updated pack, similar to Tesla’s 4680 cells. These cell sizes are easier and cheaper to manufacture but cooling them has been difficult – even for Tesla. This difficulty in cooling has resulted in reduced maximum charge rates, but Tesla has recently had some drastic improvements in this field.

Every Rivian vehicle already supports the V2H/V2L vehicle-to-home/vehicle-to-load protocols from CCS, but it has thus far been disabled. Rivian will be introducing a bidirectional charger for V2H, alongside a software update to unlock the functionality on all previous Rivian vehicles.

Electronics and the Maximus Motor

A key portion of Volkswagen’s investment is also access to Rivian’s new electronics – the Zonal controllers. Rivian has built a zone-based ECU that controls various parts of the vehicle in centralized locations – resulting in their Gen 2 platform having 60% fewer ECUs, a 1.6-mile reduction in cable harness length, and a 44lb weight reduction.

These are some pretty impressive numbers and are a great step towards Rivian moving towards scaling mass production of their vehicle platforms.

Of course, it's not just the battery and electronics – Rivian’s in-house motor has received an update, with a 30% cost savings and a 30% reduction in labor per unit for their single-motor-per-axel motor variant. This motor will be going onwards to replace the Enduro and will be the primary drive unit for the R2 and R3 vehicles.

Rivian Spaces, Shop, and the Rivian Adventure Network

Rivian’s sales fronts are known as Rivian Spaces – genuinely a place to get to see a vehicle, hear about it from a Rivian salesperson, and learn about all its features. Spaces have generally been sparsely located – with just 12 open today in 2024, and just 2 open last year.

To address this, Rivian plans a drastic expansion of its Spaces, with 40+ being opened throughout 2024 and 2025. This is going to be Rivian’s big step towards bringing their vehicles to the mass market, and away from the specialty consumers that they target today.

The Rivian Shop will also be receiving plenty of updates – alongside the newly launched shop UI. This will include a dedicated platform for selling pre-owned Rivians, including lease returns.

The Rivian Adventure Network will be opening to the public this summer, which means non-Rivian vehicles will be able to charge there soon for the first time. Rivian has committed to expanding the RAN and aims to fill “charging deserts” that it locates through ABRP.

Rivian previously adopted NACS as a standard and is expected to begin producing vehicles with NACS built-in soon, so we could expect the RAN to also use NACS plugs soon.

Service Centers and Service

Beyond the expansion of Spaces, Rivian currently has 59 service centers open today and aims to have 100+ service centers through 2025. This is a pretty big increase, and Rivian also mentions that it intends to have Rivian Mobile Service be able to reach customers who aren’t near a Service Center.

They intend for their service centers to remain fairly small, with roughly a 50% smaller footprint than other comparables, as approximately 70% of their work orders are completed via mobile service. This is fairly similar to Tesla’s approach with their large-footprint Collision Centers located centrally, and smaller Service Center/Delivery Center combinations spread throughout major cities. Tesla has previously mentioned that approximately 80% of their service orders can be completed by a mobile technician, and Rivian is very similar.

Rivian plans to introduce an AI chat system that can pull vehicle logs and data, as well as known defects to help assist Rivian owners and customers with service requests before they need to speak to an agent. The AI will be able to schedule service appointments, and can even suggest routine maintenance, such as tire rotations. This service will be arriving for Rivian’s commercial vehicle platforms first – the EDV and ECV.

February 18, 2024